Singlehanded TransPac Weather/Tactics

June 14, 2010

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PART 5: THE RUN

You have weathered the WINDY REACH, passed the RIDGE, sailed under the EPAC High during SLOTCARS. And now the last third of the SHTP is the RUN.

You know that you have safely passed under the High and entered the tradewinds when the barometer starts a gradual descent from its high of 1020-1022 mb. By Hanalei, the baro will have dropped to an average pressure of 1015 mb.

In absence of Weather Fax and/or GRIB Files, a sure way to locate the direction of the center of the EPAC High is to stand facing into the True Wind. Assuming the True Wind is coming from 12 o'clock on a clock face, the center of the EPAC High will be to your left, at 10:30 on the clock face.

During the RUN, the wind speed and direction is generally even across the course. With the Finish DDW, you will be trying to sail the closer or favored jibe towards Hanalei. The further south and west you sail, the further the Tradewinds will veer, generally settling in from the ENE or approximately 75 m.

This slow veer means the right hand side of the course is favored for the RUN, and generally you will be sailing on starboard tack more than port, even crossing north of the rhumbline during latter stages of the SHTP.

Five to ten degree shifts come through on an irregular and unpredictable basis. Unless you are racing on a fully crewed boat set up to jibe frequently, these small shifts are not easy to take advantage of when solo sailing.

However, during and after squalls, the wind may shift more dramatically. If you find yourself lifted on starboard and steering DDW on a compass course of 280 m or above, it is time to immediately jibe to port. Likewise, if you are steering DDW on port on a compass course of 200 m or below, it is also jibe time. These are your 'fences', and should be religiously minded.

Tradewind squalls, especially during the night, become a regular feature of the RUN. Generally, a squall will veer the wind 15-20 degrees to the right from the prevailing wind. The windspeed will also increase in a squall 10-15 knots for a short time.

Much has been written about squall management during Transpacs, especially aggressively jibing in front of a squall. But these articles are from the point of view of faster and fully crewed racers. For SHTP racers, if possible, it is best to avoid squalls, as the brief increase in wind can cause havoc with sails, wrapping spinnakers and setting twins aback. The wake of the squall then leaves a period of light and frustrating sailing until the squall moves on or dissipates, and the Trades fill again.

If a squall can't be avoided, it is best to sail through the squall on port jibe, and exit 'stage left'. The reason is a squall is moving to the right of the path of the surface wind, and port jibe lets you diverge rapidly from the light air behind a squall. Exiting 'stage right' behind a squall is fraught with peril, especially near dawn, when the risk of getting becalmed increases.

In 2008, the Olson 30 Polar Bear had a particularly simple and successful strategy for dealing with squalls: Eric would fly his spinnaker during the day, leaving it up until the first squall hit at night. Then he would drop his chute, wing out a jib for the rest of the night, and reset at first light.

For the RUN, a favorable surface current of up to .75 knots can be expected to boost daily runs 10-15 miles

Sheet and halyard chafe can take its toll during the RUN. Chafe patrol should be ongoing. A spinnaker sheet sawing under the boom will soon wear through the cover. An 'outgrabber' that pulls the spinny sheet outboard on the boom will generally do much to reduce chafe.

Halyard chafe is also a constant. Even the main halyard is not safe. If the main halyard is rope, it may lead over the sharp edge of the masthead sheave as the headboard swings to right angles on a run. Chafed rope halyards and guys can be quickly shortened using a buntline hitch. A chafed sheet can be shortened and end-for-ended multiple times.

Except for the steering gear, there is no greater strain than that put on the boom gooseneck, and on the inboard pole end mast track. Both the gooseneck and mast track take extreme side loading for which the thin wall of an aluminum mast is the weak link. Goosenecks and mast tracks fail in every race, and cannot be made too strong. A banding tool is recommended equipment.

Dipping the boom can also break the boom at the boomvang. It is good to have the boom reinforced in this area with internal or external sleeving. And to use a weak link or renewable 'break away' attachment that blows before the boom breaks (3/16" line?)

Twin jibs are a boon to singlehanders, especially those with heavier displacement boats. Twins allow sailing DDW. The tradeoff is most boats roll horribly. By reaching up slightly with twins, not only is the roll eliminated, but the main can often remain set, as it no longer blankets the leeward twin.

Poles winging out twins should each be set with a topping lift and a taut foreguy. Should the windward twin go aback without a taut foreguy, the pole may wrap around the windward shrouds.

The RUN is the most fun part of the SHTP. At some point, every racer will be surfing waves with tradewind popcorn clouds floating overhead. Over the horizon, Hanalei beckons.

GAMEPLAN for the RUN: Sail the closest jibe towards Pt. B (23N x 158W). Exit stage left from squalls. Don't fly a chute on a squally night unless you are hand steering and ready for eventualities. Mind chafe, and keep an eye on the gooseneck and mast track.

PART 6: THE FINISH

The downwind sprint from Kauai Approach Point, 'Pt. B' at 23N x 158W, is 100 miles at 225 m to the Finish Line off Puu Poa Pt., just east of the entrance to Hanalei Bay. Land starts to become visible at about 20 miles. The island of Kauai has rugged mountains and ridges. Mt. Waialeale, at 5,148 feet, is one of the rainiest spots on Earth and rarely visible. Most higher elevations are obscured by tradewind clouds stacking up on windward flanks.

At night, the loom of the main city of Lihue on the eastern shore will be visible to port, along with its rotating airport beacon. Almost dead ahead, and slightly to port will be the famous Kilauea Point Lighthouse, five miles east of the finish line. Kilauea Light becomes visible at about 15 miles.

Except for the condos on the cliffs at Princeville, the North Shore of Kauai between Kilauea and Hanalei is predominantly dark at night. The anchorage and anchor lights of boats in Hanalei Bay will not be visible until after finishing. There are no navigational aids at Hanalei. Because there is land between approaching finishers and the Race Committee stationed on the Princeville cliffs, VHF contact with RC will likely be intermittent at 10 miles and not consistent until 5 miles or less.

VHF Weather and Channel 16 Coast Guard have good range, at up to 100 miles offshore. FM Public Radio station KKCR Hanalei is available at 90.9 and 91.9, and gives local news, weather, and surf reports.

The run to the finish is straight forward. During late night and early morning, the Tradewinds die away near land (to five miles offshore), and the wind shifts to a more offshore direction. The strongest wind at the finish, usually 18-20 knots from the east, will be during the afternoon. Rain squalls are frequent but short lived on the North Shore. Night time rain can be intense for short periods, but electrical storms are non-existent in summer.

If you cross the finish line on port tack, prepare to either jibe or put on the brakes, as there is not much runway ahead with reef extending north and eastward from the entrance to Hanalei. The sail into Hanalei Bay anchorage is a port tack reach during the day, and a light air beat at night. Entrance into Hanalei should be approached from the north, avoiding the reef and surfing spot east of Puu Poa Point. You should not see less than 40 feet of water both on the approach to the finish, and on the entrance into Hanalei.

The anchorage is in 25-40 feet of water, sand and coral bits, 1/8 to 1/4 mile off the eastern shore. The buoyed lane along the beach is reserved for swimmers and canoes, and should not be anchored in.

Congratulations and Aloha Nui! You have not only completed the Singlehanded Transpac, but arrived at one of the most beautiful islands and anchorages in the Pacific.

PART 7: TROPICALS

Hurricane Season in the EPAC, east of 140 W, begins May 15. Tropical development in the EPAC is monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida.

West of 140W, to 180W, the Central Pacific (CPAC) Hurricane Season begins June 1, runs to November 30, and is monitored by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu.

Both Hurricane forecast centers are under the aegis of NOAA's National Weather Service.

On average, 15 named storms form each season in the EPAC. 87% of these named storms form below latitude 20 N. I estimate less than 25% of named EPAC Tropical Storms (TS) in June cross west of longitude 140W before they are downgraded, or dissipate. Even fewer TS develop west of 140.

The formation of a Tropical Storm begins and ends with a TROPICAL WAVE. Development then may proceed to a TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A TROPICAL STORM, and finally a HURRICANE.

In 50 years of Hawaiian racing, only one Tropical Storm has crossed tracks with a Transpac Race, that being TS Bernice in the 1965 LA-Honolulu Transpac on July 11-12. Bernice, tracking NW, blew 40-50 knots with 15-20 foot following seas from the ESE for 12 hours, and propelled Ticonderoga to break the elapsed time record in her classic race against Stormvogel. Both 72-footers suffered damage.

During the 1978 SHTP, Hurricane Carlotta passed just south of the Big Island of Hawaii, then dissipated. The fringes of Carlotta's remnants, a tropical depression (TD) brought clouds and rain over the leading SHTP finishers, making an approach to Kauai using celestial navigation problematical.

Tropical Storm development requires ocean water temps warmer than 80 degrees to support formation. A TS crossing into water cooler than 80 F (27C) degrees will promote dissipation.

The current (mid-May, 2010) water temp offshore of Kauai is 74 degrees. This temperature isotherm extends all the way to near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The water temp near Kauai may rise to near 75 degrees by mid-July.

The SHTP fleet will be sailing SW towards Hawaiian waters. This course from the NE means the SHTP fleet will be sailing in cooler waters than would support TS development. Not to say it won't happen someday: Hurricane Daniel threatened the anchored Pacific Cup fleet in Kaneohe after the 2000 Pacific Cup.

Daniel would have been the largest 'tropical' to reach the Hawaii Islands since Hurricane Iniki devasted Kauai on September 11, 1992. Daniel resulted in storm warnings being hoisted for the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai, and a tropical storm watch for Oahu and Kauai.

Honolulu West Marine sold out of anchors and chain. Twenty-four hours before landfall, Daniel was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and curved onto a path north of the Islands, bringing muggy conditions and high surf to Kauai. But no wind.

Besides Hurricane Iniki, only two other hurricanes in recorded weather history have struck Kauai: Hurricane Dot on August 6, 1950, and Hurricane Iwa on November 23, 1982. The chances of a hurricane or TS hitting Kauai or affecting the SHTP fleet are slim, about 1%. If one were to threaten, there is no safe harbor, including Port Allen and Nawiliwili, on Kauai. The best option might be putting to sea and using Kauai as a shield, staying on the opposite side of the island from the hurricane's track.

Although the chances of a hurricane or TS are remote, their influences can be felt by Transpac racers far to the north. Most EPAC hurricanes form off southern and central Mexico, and travel W or NW, usually tracking between 10-20 degrees North Latitude before falling apart east of 140W. Cross swells from the south generated by a TS can reach the SHTP fleet. The beam-to swell can make downwind steering difficult.

More importantly, a dissipating TS will result in a 'TROPICAL WAVE' or 'S' bend in the isobars as it passes to the south. A TROPICAL WAVE is a trough of low pressure represented on a Weather Fax map by a vertical dashed or solid line traveling E to W. In summer, TROPICAL WAVES transit the EPAC and CPAC several times/month.

Most TROPICAL WAVES pass to the south of the Hawaiian Island Chain. Some, however, pass over Hawaii or even to the north.

In 1998, while at anchor in Hanalei Bay, the remnants of Hurricane Darby passed 200 miles north on August 1, bringing torrential rain and light shifting winds to departing singlehanders heading back for the Mainland. The Hanalei anchorage became disorganized, with wildly swinging boats. Ten days later, August 11-12, the remnants of Hurricane Estelle passed 60 miles north of Hanalei, causing the tradewinds to reverse and blow from the west for 36 hours.

With the approach of a TROPICAL WAVE, the wind will initially back into the N. After the passage of the WAVE, the wind will veer into the SE, S, or even SW. And go light. Close reaching into a TransPac finish on port tack is not as unusual as might be thought. Maybe 1 in 10 Transpacific races are at some point affected by the backside of a TROPICAL WAVE.

After Iniki's damage, the National Hurricane Center really woke up. Predictions now are timely, and accurate out to five days or more. Hawaiian Weather and Civil Defense are also keenly alert, and warnings can be expected well in advance of any Tropical approach.

Tropical Development should not be a big worry for SHTP racers. However, attention should be paid to the possibilities.

CONCLUSION:

Throughout its 32-year history the Singlehanded TransPac Race (SHTP) has earned many epithets - courageous, heroic, masochistic, insane… In 1998, after 14 days in the cramped confines of his Moore 24, Greg Morris characterized our odd contest with his own irreverent spin: "This race is like a bug light for weirdos with boats."

And overheard at Tree Time, "With all the time and money you've poured into your boat, you can't just do this race once…"

______/)____^____

HANALEI to KEEHI and ALA WAI Small Boat Harbors (120 miles):

Electing to ship your boat home post SHTP means crossing the Kauai Channel from Kauai to Oahu to deliver your yacht to Keehi Marine Center at Honolulu for haul out. This overnight passage is normally a rugged upwind crossing. Especially if there are Small Craft Advisories for the Kauai Channel.

Begin early morning. It is six miles to Kilauea Point. The wind likely will be light offshore until trades fill near shore about 10 a.m.

After passing Kilauea Light, parallel the shore (port tack) and assume a course of 115-120 magnetic. The tradewinds will fill and increase to 20-25 knots from 075 m as you leave the coast of Kauai astern.

It is 93 miles from Kilauea Point to Barbers Point (approximately 20-24 hours). If you fall SW (to leeward) of rhumbline, no worries. You will get lifted as you approach Oahu.

Bailout is Lihue/Nawiliwili, dead downwind at 21° 57' x 159° 20' W (bright aero beacon at Lihue Airport just north of the main harbor). Nawiliwili Harbor has an anchorage and small boat marina inside.

As you approach Oahu and leave Kaena Point to port, the wind will fair and ease and the vociferous seas will calm in the lee of Kaena Point. There are several brightly lit radomes on the ridges high above Kaena Point.

Kaena Point's lee and consequent reduction of wind and seas begins when Kaena Point bears approximately 60 m. Although the effect of the lee of Kaena Point and the high mountain ridges of Oahu can be felt for 20-30 miles out into the Kauai Channel, the closer to Oahu you get, the smoother the seas.

Once past Kaena Point, seas will be smooth. Afternoon seabreezes from the SW prevail in the lee of Oahu until near Barbers Point, where the tradewind (NE) windline again kicks in.

Along the SW shore of Oahu, in flat water and light winds, you will pass the Waianae (Pokai Bay) Small Boat Harbor, then Ko Olina Harbor - both good bailout spots. Ko Olina has a full service marina, and lies just northeast of Barbers Point.

Try to arrive at Barbers Point after dawn. The windline begins again at Barbers Point. Stay outside restricted oil tanker buoys, but not too far out - trades will be gusty here, but the water relatively smooth with afternoon wind chop. Little or no swell.

It is now a 16-mile beat to Keehi/Ala Wai along the south coast of Oahu. Long port tack legs. Shorter starboard tacks into smoother water. Do not approach the reef closer than 1/2 mile or depth less than 50 feet (light blue water).

You will pass 1) Pearl Harbor, 2) Honolulu Airport 3) Keehi Lagoon 4) Honolulu Harbor and 5) Kewalo Basin before Ala Wai. All these entrances are dredged passes through the off lying reef.

Do not attempt to enter Keehi Lagoon or Ala Wai after dark*. Background lights are confusing. Ala Wai Channel is only 100-ft wide. You can sail into both Keehi and Ala Wai during daylight hours.

Entering Ala Wai, the Hawaii Yacht Club is to starboard and Waikiki YC is to port. HYC is always welcoming. You can tie up at their guest dock for a shower, ice, and a good meal.

* If you arrive at Keehi or Ala Wai after dark, try to get a tow or lead into these harbors from a passing boat. Without local knowledge, the background lights and narrow, dogleg channel are too confusing and dangerous for safe entry after dark.

Waypoints

1. Kaena Point 21° 35' x 158° 17'
2. Barbers Point 21° 17' x 158° 07' W
3. Pokai Bay Small Boat Harbor 21° 27.5' x 158° 12'
4. Ko Olina Marina 21° 19.6' x 158° 07'
   Harbormaster phone: (808) 679-1050
5. Lihue/Nawiliwili bailout 21° 57' x 159° 20'
6. Keehi Lagoon Entrance 21-17 x 158-53
7. Keehi Marine Center phone 808-845-6465
8. Ala Wai Harbor entrance 21° 16.58' x 157° 50.8'
9. Honolulu Coast Guard phone: (808) 842-2640

- Skip Allan

The 2010 Singlehanded TransPac begins on Saturday, June 19, at Corinthian YC in Tiburon. We'll have more reports of and from the 'Bug Lighters' as the event progresses. - ed.